Genomics Strategic Demand and Capacity Modelling
Context
Akeso were engaged by a National Genomics Service (NGS) to help understand demand and workforce requirements over a 10 year timeframe through the development of a Strategic Planning Model that forecast demand and capacity requirements, net of likely improvements in productivity and technology or AI.
Methodology
The NGS delivers 750k Genomic tests annually through a centrally-led service, which involves 7 regional services delivering patient engagement and testing activity through 17 specialist clinical units and 21 laboratories, and employs over 2,000 staff.
In 2024, the NGS required a strategy to understand and address capacity-constraining workforce issues and a range of future scenarios, all of which indicated major growth in demand over the next 10 years.
Akeso were engaged to understand and evaluate service capacity and productivity, model the range of possible futures, and determine how they could be addressed on a sustainable basis through developments in the workforce operating model over the short, medium and longer term.
As Is Operating Model
Assessed the current end-to-end patient engagement and testing activity across the full scope of Cancer and Rare Disease. Engaged with over 65 stakeholders to understand the current service, future strategies and challenges, nationally and regionally, by sub-service and specialism. Identified areas of best practice and future opportunities.
International Study
Completed an international study engaging with leading providers in Germany, Sweden (Karolinska), and Canada to understand key similarities and differences in national approaches to Genomics. This included the extent to which these countries are experiencing the same challenges as the UK and how they are addressing these through workforce, technology and innovation.
Strategic Planning and Forecasting
Developed a productivity-based Strategic Demand and Workforce Planning Model with a 10-year time horizon. This enabled demand to be forecast on a segmented basis across a range of growth scenarios and capacity required (FTE and total cost) to be understood in terms of standardised workforce groups, accounting for year-on-year efficiency opportunities through innovation and transformation.
Scenario Evaluation
Evaluated a range of Future Demand and Delivery Scenarios based on probability-weighted future demand (Unmet Need, Pharmacogenomics, Personalised Medicine, Newborn Screening), Workforce Strategies (including transformation, role standardisation and enrichment, training and education), and new technology (including automation and AI).
Leadership Guidance
Developed a call to action recommendation for NGS leadership to prioritise and secure funding for a sustainable Operating Model strategy, enabling the NHS to maintain its pace of development and global leadership in this critical area.
Impact
The insights and tools developed enabled the NGS to begin addressing long-term service pressures and plan for sustainable capacity increases. Akeso’s Strategic Planning Model formed the foundation for operational change and service transformation.