Case Study

Genomics Strategic Demand and Capacity Modelling

Akeso were engaged by a National Genomics Service (NGS) to help understand demand and workforce requirements over a 10 year timeframe through the development of a Strategic Planning Model that forecast demand and capacity requirements, net of likely improvements in productivity & tech / AI.

Insight

  • The NGS delivers 750k Genomic tests annually through a centrally-led service, which involves 7 regional services delivering patient engagement and testing activity through 17 specialist clinical units and 21 laboratories, and employs over 2,000 staff.
  • In 2024, the NGS required a strategy to understand and address capacity constraining workforce issues and a range of future scenarios, of which all see major growth in demand over the next 10 years.
  • Akeso were engaged to understand and evaluate service capacity and productivity, model the range of possible futures and determine how they can be addressed on a sustainable basis through the developments in the workforce operating model over the short, medium and longer term.

Action

  • Assessed As Is Operating Model to understand end-to-end patient engagement and testing activity across full scope of Cancer and Rare Disease; engaged with over 65 stakeholders to understand the current service, future strategies and challenges, nationally and regionally, by sub-service and specialism; identified areas of best practice and future opportunities.
  • Completed International Study engaging with leading providers in Germany, Sweden (Karolinska), Canada to understand key similarities and differences in national approaches to Genomics, including extent to which these countries are experiencing same challenges as UK and how they are planning to address these through workforce, technology and innovation.
  • Developed productivity-based Strategic Demand and Workforce Planning Model with 10 year time horizon that enabled demand to be forecast on a segmented basis across a range of growth scenarios, and capacity required (FTE and total cost) to be understood in terms of standardised workforce groups, after considering year-on-year efficiency opportunities resulting from new technology, innovation and transformation.
  • Evaluated range of Future Demand / Delivery Scenarios based on prob.-weighted future demand (Unmet Need, Pharmacogenomics / Personalised Medicine, Newborn Screening), Workforce Strategies (incl. transformation, job role standardisation and enrichment, training and education) and new technology (incl. automation and AI).
  • Developed call to action recommendation for NGS leadership to prioritise and secure funding for sustainable Operating Model strategy to maintain NHS pace of development and global leadership in this critical area.

Results

  • We helped GMS understand the capacity implications of long term growth in demand for Genomic testing which has enabled them to begin to focus on the OpModel changes that are needed to meet the volume challenge whilst improving Patient Care.
  • We identified a series of options to deliver required capacity / productivity including role standardization, operating model re-design, training, investment in new technology which offers automation and AI etc.
  • Our recommendations will be used to inform negotiation of funding and investment requirements UK Government.